While this week was uneventful and while 2022 was more volatile in terms of movement in the housing/mortgage market, we can still reflect on 2023 as a year of extremes. Incidentally, that thesis is supported by some of the only economic data released this week. Pending Home Sales came out perfectly unchanged from last month,…
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The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them up with a single chart. The Federal Reserve doesn’t ultimately dictate rate levels, but it has a huge impact on how rates move. The Fed has been credited with fueling the improvements…
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We came into this week expecting the Fed’s Dot Plot to set the tone, or at least to create a good amount of movement in rates, and that’s exactly what happened. The dot plot refers to a chart that appears 4 times a year in economic projections released by the Fed. Projections are not the…
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It was mostly a great week for mortgage rates with the average lender near the best levels in months through Thursday. Friday’s jobs report pushed rates back up a bit, but not excessively. Next week’s two big ticket events could set the tone for the rest of the year. Ultimately, that’s exactly what’s at stake.…
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It’s been a good week for extremes in the housing market with rates at 3 month lows, pending home sales at “record” lows, and conforming loan limits up to record highs. Here’s why at least two of those three things aren’t very interesting. Let’s start with what was probably the week’s most dramatic housing market…
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Mortgage rates have fallen significantly in November. For the housing market, it couldn’t come at a more critical time, but the road ahead remains uncertain–mostly due to timing. Here’s what we’re up against in terms of home sales (includes the most recent monthly result released this week): Keep in mind that the market for EXISTING…
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of two big, monthly economic reports that have the strongest track records of causing volatility for rates. This makes sense considering inflation is the primary reason rates are as high as they are. Other economic data matters too. The other big report is the Employment Situation, typically referred…
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While it’s possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week. So “everything’s relative,” and relatively speaking, that’s a win. Here’s a snapshot of the action as told by 10yr Treasury yields, which tend to be moving in the same direction as…
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This past week brought the release of two housing reports that track the pace of home sales each month and they told distinctly different stories. Which one is telling the truth? The reports in question are New Residential Sales from the Census Bureau and Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors. The former…
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Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest levels in more than a decade. Pretty gloomy… but there are silver linings and perhaps even some overly optimistic Kool Aid to drink. As always,…
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