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Housing Market Thankful For Lower Rates But The True Test is in Early December

Mortgage rates have fallen significantly in November. For the housing market, it couldn’t come at a more critical time, but the road ahead remains uncertain–mostly due to timing. Here’s what we’re up against in terms of home sales (includes the most recent monthly result released this week): Keep in mind that the market for EXISTING…
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Cooler Inflation Prompts Big Shift in Rate Outlook

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of two big, monthly economic reports that have the strongest track records of causing volatility for rates.  This makes sense considering inflation is the primary reason rates are as high as they are. Other economic data matters too.  The other big report is the Employment Situation, typically referred…
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Everything’s Relative, And Rates Had a Relatively Good Week

While it’s possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week.  So “everything’s relative,” and relatively speaking, that’s a win. Here’s a snapshot of the action as told by 10yr Treasury yields, which tend to be moving in the same direction as…
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Lots at Stake For Rates Next Week; Which Housing Report is Telling You The Truth?

This past week brought the release of two housing reports that track the pace of home sales each month and they told distinctly different stories. Which one is telling the truth? The reports in question are New Residential Sales from the Census Bureau and Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors.  The former…
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Doom, Gloom, Kool Aid, And Warm Porridge

Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest levels in more than a decade. Pretty gloomy… but there are silver linings and perhaps even some overly optimistic Kool Aid to drink. As always,…
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Rates Reacting to War and The Fed, But Maybe Not For Long

After hitting the highest levels in decades last week, mortgage rates dropped sharply at the beginning of this week. At first glance, this was a classic flight to safety following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas Conflict, but at the same time, markets were possibly just as interested in a change in tone from the Fed.…
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How Will The Government Shutdown Affect The Mortgage and Housing Markets?

It’s nearly impossible to consume any news these days without coming across the government shutdown. As of Friday afternoon, the shutdown looks like it will be a thing.  Even if it’s miraculously avoided in the 11th hour, we can still discuss some objective questions and conclusions about shutdowns in general.  As always, we’re not interested…
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If The Fed Didn’t Hike, Why Did Mortgage Rates Hit Long Term Highs?

This week’s main event was the scheduled policy announcement from the Fed. As was the case two meetings ago, the Fed opted to hold its policy rate unchanged, but almost every other interest rate in the US moved sharply higher. This counterintuitive movement is fairly common when it comes to the 8 Fed meetings each…
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Fed Won’t Move Its Rate, But Rates Could Still Move

In and of itself, this week wasn’t too bad for mortgage rates. Things got a bit worse overall, but the change from last week was minimal with the average lender moving up 0.07% from last Friday.   There’s a decent cushion between current levels and the long-term highs last month. Even the late 2022 highs were a…
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Rates Defended The Ceiling This Week; Bigger Battles Ahead

While it’s impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it’s usually possible to identify the events that have higher potential to cause bigger swings. Other times, volatility strikes on days when it wasn’t entirely expected. That’s how this past week began.  After Monday’s holiday closure, rates jumped higher on Tuesday morning…
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