Category: Newsletters

There’s no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprecedented pace, ushering in one of the quickest cooldowns on record. One of the only ways to find hope in this environment is to imagine that bad news is finite.…
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Unsurprisingly, the market remains intently focused on inflation as the key driver of Fed policy and rate volatility. This week, the biggest inflation report combined with more UK market drama to push rates to another 20yr high. The UK doesn’t typically factor into our assessment of market movement in the US, but the past 3 weeks…
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The resilience of the economy is a matter of debate with different cases to be made depending on the data. But when it comes to the Fed’s favorite reports, the data hasn’t given them any reason to go easy on rates. The Fed doesn’t directly dictate mortgage rates, but it does set the Fed Funds…
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There was no rest for weary rate watchers after last week’s rout. This week turned out to be even more volatile. UK in The Spotlight (Still) UK issues are still having a big impact.  Last week’s rate spike was most readily attributable to market panic over a budgetary decision in The UK.  Panic remained on…
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In order to make the most of today’s newsletter, you’ll need a basic understanding of the Fed Funds Rate (the thing the Fed actually hikes or cuts in an attempt to keep inflation in a target range) and the fact that mortgage rates are very different from the Fed Funds Rate. Here is a handy…
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By this time next week, we will have heard from the Fed as they announce the next rate hike on September 21st.  It will be big too.  Just how big is a matter of debate.  0.75% is a safe starting point, but 1.00% will be on the table as well.  The former would match July’s…
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It’s certainly already been an interesting year for financial markets–especially for housing and interest rates. But most of what’s happened over the past 8 months could be thought of as the more predictable phase of the post-pandemic market cycle. It’s what happens next that’ll be more interesting. How could anyone say that the last 8…
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While it was never likely to contain too many surprises, this week’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell served as an important reminder as to why rates have risen so sharply in August. The Fed has 8 scheduled policy meetings per year.  At the conclusion of those meetings, the Fed releases an official…
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Markets and mortgage rates are currently trying to reconcile the big narratives that have accounted for most of the movement in 2022.  In one corner we have inflation and the forces trying to fight it.  In the other, we have the economic fallout from that fight. Inflation was the main reason rates skyrocketed in the first…
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