Category: Newsletters

Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are just a sideshow in the bigger picture where rates have been locked in a pattern of indecision that will ultimately give way to the next big move. There’s a…
Read more

The good news is that last November increasingly looks like the moment when rates stopped surging higher at the fastest pace in 40 years. The not-so-good news is that they still don’t seem sure what to do next. Rates have been able to stop the bleeding due to inflation broadly leveling off over the past 6…
Read more

Interest rates were remarkably calm in the last week of March. The market was in the process of shifting focus from the banking sector back to economic data. It just so happened that last week was light on data. This week was quite the opposite. The first week of any given month often brings several…
Read more

The bond market moved far less over the entire week than it did during a single day last week. Not only was volatility much lighter, but the trading patterns changed as well. At the onset of the recent panic in the banking sector, stocks and bonds shifted into risk aversion mode.  Scary news pushed money…
Read more

While there were no further bank failures this week, there was plenty of concern and speculation about who might be next. Those concerns teamed up with Wednesday’s Fed announcement to push interest rates lower (yes, even though the Fed hiked rates). Meanwhile, two separate reports showed a decline in home prices. Bank Failures Driving Markets…
Read more

There’s certainly a chicken/egg problem when it comes to interest rate news. Is it the Fed’s decisions that move rates? Or do market forces move rates, thus forcing the Fed to react? The answer is somewhere in between. If inflation and economic growth were always positive, low, and stable, the Fed would never lift a…
Read more

Back on February 3rd, the last jobs report sent rates screaming higher. It was the biggest market mover of the month and traders have been waiting for the March 10th installment ever since. When it finally arrived, an unexpected guest stole the show. The Department of Labor issues the Employment Situation early each month.  Frequently referred to…
Read more

Home sales are very low. Mortgage rates have spiked back to 7%. New mortgage fees have eroded affordability for some. But the news isn’t all bad. We’re not going to cherry pick a few favorable data points or signs of resilience.  Indeed, incoming news and data for the housing market has been more bad than…
Read more

When it comes to the mortgage and housing markets, there’s been no shortage of gloomy news for months. This generally involves slumping sales, lower prices, and higher rates.  All of the above are interconnected to some extent.  The interconnection can be summed up in a single paragraph: Home prices surged post-covid as demand greatly outpaced…
Read more

Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly more weight than others.  If put to a vote, the perennial top dog would be The Employment Situation…
Read more