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Category: Newsletters

The Fed Will Still Raise Rates in March, And That’s Why Rates May Keep Falling

There’s certainly a chicken/egg problem when it comes to interest rate news. Is it the Fed’s decisions that move rates? Or do market forces move rates, thus forcing the Fed to react? The answer is somewhere in between. If inflation and economic growth were always positive, low, and stable, the Fed would never lift a…
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How One Unexpected Event Completely Stole The Show This Week

Back on February 3rd, the last jobs report sent rates screaming higher. It was the biggest market mover of the month and traders have been waiting for the March 10th installment ever since. When it finally arrived, an unexpected guest stole the show. The Department of Labor issues the Employment Situation early each month.  Frequently referred to…
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Things Aren’t Necessarily Destined to Get Worse For Housing and Rates

Home sales are very low. Mortgage rates have spiked back to 7%. New mortgage fees have eroded affordability for some. But the news isn’t all bad. We’re not going to cherry pick a few favorable data points or signs of resilience.  Indeed, incoming news and data for the housing market has been more bad than…
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Looking For Silver Linings

When it comes to the mortgage and housing markets, there’s been no shortage of gloomy news for months. This generally involves slumping sales, lower prices, and higher rates.  All of the above are interconnected to some extent.  The interconnection can be summed up in a single paragraph: Home prices surged post-covid as demand greatly outpaced…
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Wild Ride For Rates After Stunning Jobs Report

Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly more weight than others.  If put to a vote, the perennial top dog would be The Employment Situation…
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Is The Housing Market Finally Bouncing Back?

There are those who always try to portray the glass as being half full when it comes to the housing market. Then there are those who love a full glass, but who also call it like they see it. Right now, each camp has something to agree on: the glass is more full than it…
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Lowest Rates in 4 Months, So Why Does Fed Say They’re Going Higher?

Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest levels in 4 months after this week’s inflation data. Despite the recent progress, Fed officials continue to talk about keeping rates high “for as long as possible.” Who’s telling the truth? First off, we know that mortgage rates are at 4 month lows because that assertion relies on the…
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Markets Call The Fed’s Bluff After Downbeat Data

The Federal Reserve (aka “The Fed”) has a parrot problem, and it’s on a crash course with economic reality… maybe. The Fed sets policies that impact interest rates in an attempt to keep inflation in check without crippling the economy.  After arguably leaving rate-friendly policies intact too long in 2021, they scrambled to put the…
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2022 Was Rough For Rates and Housing, But 2023 is a Blank Canvas

So long 2022!  Don’t let the door hit you.  You were the worst year for mortgage rates that most of us have seen in our lifetimes in terms of the pace of the rate spike.  Sure, our friends who have more “life experience” are happy to remind us about their double digit mortgage rates in…
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Best Winning Streak For Rates in 2 Years

It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed’s smaller rate hike.  In fact, the latest inflation data could be thought of as the most important and most persistent focus for rates all year long. When it comes to measuring inflation, there…
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