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Markets Call The Fed’s Bluff After Downbeat Data

The Federal Reserve (aka “The Fed”) has a parrot problem, and it’s on a crash course with economic reality… maybe. The Fed sets policies that impact interest rates in an attempt to keep inflation in check without crippling the economy.  After arguably leaving rate-friendly policies intact too long in 2021, they scrambled to put the…
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2022 Was Rough For Rates and Housing, But 2023 is a Blank Canvas

So long 2022!  Don’t let the door hit you.  You were the worst year for mortgage rates that most of us have seen in our lifetimes in terms of the pace of the rate spike.  Sure, our friends who have more “life experience” are happy to remind us about their double digit mortgage rates in…
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Mixed Signals in Housing Data and Small-Scale Volatility in Rates

The last two weeks of December are unlike almost any time of year in terms of market movement and what we should read into it, but there were several housing-related reports that are worth considering as we head into the new year. The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) published its builder confidence numbers on Monday. …
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Best Winning Streak For Rates in 2 Years

It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed’s smaller rate hike.  In fact, the latest inflation data could be thought of as the most important and most persistent focus for rates all year long. When it comes to measuring inflation, there…
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Extremely Risky Week Coming Up For Better or Worse

Tuesday December 13th is the day many people have been waiting for ever since Thursday November 10th. What do those two days have in common? They each mark the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index, the official inflation data responsible for some of 2022’s wildest trading days. Wild trading days aren’t just for traders. …
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$726,200 is The New Loan Limit for 2023; High Cost Counties Now Over $1m

If you’re just here for the conforming loan limit news, $726,200 is the number for 2023. Does this mean no one can get a mortgage for more than $726,200?  No.  The conforming loan limit is the maximum amount that can be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the government-sponsored enterprises or GSEs).  That guarantee…
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Rates Dream of Green Christmas With Help From The Fed

As far as financial markets are concerned, a green Christmas is better than anything Bing Crosby could have crooned about. Green is the color that flashes when markets are improving or when interest rates are falling. Green, for lack of a better word, is good. For mortgage rates, it’s been an especially difficult year.  They’ve…
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Get The Cash You Need Without Refinancing

See how a Home Equity Line of Credit or Home Equity Loan can be a better option for tapping into your home’s equity. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) Home Equity Loan A HELOC is a line of credit that is secured by your home, giving you a revolving credit line to use at your…
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Fed Says: Don’t Get Too Excited About Rates Just Yet

There’s no question that last week was an exciting one for rates. On Wednesday, the average 30yr fixed was fairly close to the highest levels since 2002. The following afternoon, it had fallen more than half a percent to the lowest level in nearly 2 months–the biggest single day drop on record. While rates are…
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Record Single Day Drop in Rates After Inflation Comes in Cooler

Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two key inflation reports in the US.  PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the other big index, but because CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier, it gets almost all of the market’s…
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