48 Meriden Rd, Suite 1, Middlefield, CT 06455


The Dots Put an Exclamation Point on Record-Breaking Drop in Rates

We came into this week expecting the Fed’s Dot Plot to set the tone, or at least to create a good amount of movement in rates, and that’s exactly what happened. The dot plot refers to a chart that appears 4 times a year in economic projections released by the Fed.  Projections are not the…
Read more

What’s at Stake With Next Week’s Fed Announcement and Inflation Data?

It was mostly a great week for mortgage rates with the average lender near the best levels in months through Thursday. Friday’s jobs report pushed rates back up a bit, but not excessively. Next week’s two big ticket events could set the tone for the rest of the year. Ultimately, that’s exactly what’s at stake.…
Read more

What New Loan Limits Mean; Should We Worry About “Worst Ever” Pending Home Sales?

It’s been a good week for extremes in the housing market with rates at 3 month lows, pending home sales at “record” lows, and conforming loan limits up to record highs. Here’s why at least two of those three things aren’t very interesting. Let’s start with what was probably the week’s most dramatic housing market…
Read more

Housing Market Thankful For Lower Rates But The True Test is in Early December

Mortgage rates have fallen significantly in November. For the housing market, it couldn’t come at a more critical time, but the road ahead remains uncertain–mostly due to timing. Here’s what we’re up against in terms of home sales (includes the most recent monthly result released this week): Keep in mind that the market for EXISTING…
Read more

Cooler Inflation Prompts Big Shift in Rate Outlook

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of two big, monthly economic reports that have the strongest track records of causing volatility for rates.  This makes sense considering inflation is the primary reason rates are as high as they are. Other economic data matters too.  The other big report is the Employment Situation, typically referred…
Read more

Everything’s Relative, And Rates Had a Relatively Good Week

While it’s possible to accuse mortgage rates of experiencing volatility over the past few days, this week was exceptionally calm compared to last week.  So “everything’s relative,” and relatively speaking, that’s a win. Here’s a snapshot of the action as told by 10yr Treasury yields, which tend to be moving in the same direction as…
Read more

Lots at Stake For Rates Next Week; Which Housing Report is Telling You The Truth?

This past week brought the release of two housing reports that track the pace of home sales each month and they told distinctly different stories. Which one is telling the truth? The reports in question are New Residential Sales from the Census Bureau and Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors.  The former…
Read more

Doom, Gloom, Kool Aid, And Warm Porridge

Mortgage rates finally broke the 8% ceiling this week after months of gradual upward movement in the 7% range. At the same time, Existing Home Sales fell to the lowest levels in more than a decade. Pretty gloomy… but there are silver linings and perhaps even some overly optimistic Kool Aid to drink. As always,…
Read more

Rates Reacting to War and The Fed, But Maybe Not For Long

After hitting the highest levels in decades last week, mortgage rates dropped sharply at the beginning of this week. At first glance, this was a classic flight to safety following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas Conflict, but at the same time, markets were possibly just as interested in a change in tone from the Fed.…
Read more

How Will The Government Shutdown Affect The Mortgage and Housing Markets?

It’s nearly impossible to consume any news these days without coming across the government shutdown. As of Friday afternoon, the shutdown looks like it will be a thing.  Even if it’s miraculously avoided in the 11th hour, we can still discuss some objective questions and conclusions about shutdowns in general.  As always, we’re not interested…
Read more