Category: Newsletters

Inventory! That’s been a buzzword for the housing market for more than a decade, but it’s been especially prevalent in 2023 as the excuse for slower home sales.  How good of an excuse is it? Before digging into that question, let’s take a look at the data that needs to have excuses made for it. …
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Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation data showed prices falling faster than expected. Rates responded with a full recovery. If rates could only choose one thing to be afraid of, it would be inflation.  Rates are based on bonds.  Bonds…
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Mortgage rates have been hovering in the high 6’s for weeks, but they broke above 7% on Thursday. At the same time, multiple news outlets reported a 30yr fixed rate of 6.71%. Who’s lying? While the 6.71% news may be prolific, it is all traced back to one source: Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey.  This…
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A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the housing market could be doing worse. Some might even argue that we’re seeing some resilience relative to the rate landscape. Let’s refresh our understanding of…
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In a surprising turn of events, this week’s biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event was credited for prompting a re-think of the US Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Specifically, the BOC hiked rates despite about half the market believing it would hold steady.  While…
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After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn’t seem to care. The jobs report proved to be far more relevant, but with half of it indicating a much stronger labor market and the other half saying the opposite, who’s telling the truth and why…
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It was nearly impossible to avoid news regarding the debt ceiling this week, but how much does it actually matter? Let’s make sure we’re on the same page first.  What follows are a few NON-POLITICAL thoughts on the debt ceiling, which is different than a “default.” The debt ceiling has to be increased periodically in…
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The debt ceiling debate is all over the news, but it’s a different ceiling is commanding more of the bond market’s attention.  Still, we wouldn’t say the debt ceiling is irrelevant, so let’s take a brief moment to address its implications for the housing and mortgage markets. The most direct effect of the debt ceiling…
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Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster’s definitions of the word “consolidate,” and you’ll find “to form together into a compact mass.”  Financial markets appropriated that definition long ago and have been using it to refer to the condensed mass of prices, yields, or whatever else is being measured on a chart. Speaking…
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The first week of any given month tends to have the highest concentration of economic data with the power to influence the bond market, and thus interest rates. This week was no exception. In addition to the scheduled economic data, there was unscheduled drama in the banking sector.  This involved the orderly failure of First…
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